What Brexit will mean
Dr Brian O’Connor
By Dr Brian O’Connor, chairman of the Independent Doctors Federation’s specialists committee.
The fall-out of Britain leaving the EU is difficult to predict in the context of private healthcare provision and delivery of independent medical practice.
The last economic crisis in 2008 did not hugely impact on the private healthcare market within London. Market conditions were different then, however.
There was not any major pressure from the private medical insurance companies to cost contain; from recollection, their customer base was higher than currently.
Equally, the self-pay market had not yet developed and represented less of a percentage of the total market when compared to 2016.
Indeed, since 2006, the London private hospital market has grown by more than 7%. A lot of the growth in revenue can be accounted for by the overseas markets, particularly patients from the Middle-East.
London retains its position as one of the leading major cities in the world to deliver complex care. In the last decade, private hospitals have evolved to provide centres of excellence across various specialties not often available to the overseas patient.
Equally, the Harley Street area has gone through a period of regeneration and many different consultant-led groups and clinics have been established across London to provide world-class facilities for leading-edge care.
Therefore, within London, my view is that the impact of Brexit will be minimal for those specialists, clinics and providers who continue to deliver top-class verifiable and transparent complex care.
It is difficult to predict the impact of this new situation on PMI subscribers. If there is a ‘flight of capital’ out of London, some of the major City banks and institutions may reduce their workforce and this will lead to an inevitable reduction in the PMI market.
Nonetheless, London continues to be home to some of the wealthiest individuals on the planet and I suspect the self-pay market will be sustainable, but only for those private healthcare stakeholders providing quality care.
The impact of Brexit on private care and privately contracted NHS work outside of the capital is more problematic. If we are to believe the gloomy predictions of reduction in tax income and a fall in economic growth to near recessionary levels, then PMI subscribers will reduce. Funding for the NHS is bound to diminish.
The private healthcare market in London will not only survive but will thrive and those who provide excellent self-care will flourish regardless of Brexit.
A fall in the value of sterling will encourage more overseas visitors, which will offset any possible PMI leakage. Patients and health users are already more savvy than ever before. Somewhat harsher economic conditions will accelerate the inevitable disappearance of poor-quality health provision.
Outside of London, after a period of turbulence, I suspect the market will equilibrate, but may fall in parallel with changing economic circumstances.
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